Anti-obesity & GLP-1 · competitive intelligence
Thirteen markets. Two clear every gate we can answer.
Market intelligence built around the decision you actually face: which market to back. Five gates decide whether a market can be entered before anything is ranked — and where nobody has published a number, the tracker says so instead of filling the cell.
Review-ready today: United Kingdom and United Arab Emirates — for liraglutide. Semaglutide is still patent-protected in the UK until 2031.
LENS Indian generics manufacturer · post-patent semaglutide / liraglutide
Every figure on this page describes people. The largest pool the tracker follows is India's: 250 million adults living with obesity ↗ Business Today, with 0.1% of eligible patients on GLP-1 therapy ↗ ThePrint.
01 · Gate it before you rank it
A failed gate cannot be bought back with a good number.
Five gates are resolved for every market before any comparison of attractiveness. There is no aggregate score to hide inside, because the weights have not been agreed — and a score aggregated before anyone signed off on the weighting is an opinion with decimal places.
- 01IP / lawful entryCredible route to lawful entry at the intended launch date9 pass · 2 unknown · 2 blocked
- 02Regulatory routeDocumented, locally viable abbreviated approval route9 pass · 4 unknown
- 03Obesity indicationRegistered for obesity — not diabetes-only4 pass · 7 unknown · 2 concern
- 04Access routeA funded or self-pay route to patients6 pass · 7 concern
- 05CMC / supplyQualified API, fill-finish capacity, device and GMP status0 pass · 13 unknown
02 · Unknown is drawn differently from bad
“We don’t know” and “we know it’s bad” lead to opposite decisions.
Conventional screens colour missing data amber — the same amber as a known problem. One is a diligence task with an owner and a date. The other ends the conversation about that market. The tracker never draws them the same.
Across 13 markets it issues 65 gate verdicts, and 26 of them are unknown. That is an uncomfortable number to put on a home page. It is also the number.
03 · The biggest market is not the answer
Rank by size and the answer looks obvious. Rank by headroom and it changes.
Market size tells you who is already paying. Penetration tells you how much of the eligible pool is still untreated — where the growth that has not happened yet is. Read both before picking a market.
Largest market today
Obesity-indication market value, as published
- 1BrazilUS$2.6bn
- 2ChinaUS$446m
- 3United KingdomUS$421m
- 4IndiaUS$202m
- 5AustraliaUS$166m
- 6MexicoUS$92m
Most untreated headroom
Share of eligible patients on therapy — lowest first
- 1India0.1%
- 2China1%
- 3South Africa1%
- 4Brazil1.1%
- 5European Union3%
- 6Mexico5%
Not plotted, because no source publishes the figure: Japan, Indonesia, United Kingdom, United States, United Arab Emirates. A gap is listed rather than drawn at zero — zero would rank them on a number nobody has measured.
04 · Every number has a receipt
Click the figure. Get the page it came from.
Every row opens to show the figure exactly as published, what it actually measures, and a link to its source. 1,234 of 1,288 rows carry one. The rest say plainly that no source exists — they do not borrow a related number to fill the slot.
Where two credible sources disagree, both are shown with the conflict stated. In the UK, IQVIA and a vendor estimate differ by a factor of six; neither is silently preferred.
- As published
- ₹1,906 crore ≈ US$201.9M
- Basis
- Total anti-obesity / GLP-1 drug market, India (moving annual total, MAT) · MAT May 2026
A real row from the India brief, rendered as the tracker shows it when expanded.
05 · Coverage
Thirteen markets, five regions.
From India and China to the Gulf, Latin America and Oceania. 9 markets already have a marketed non-originator product; 4 are strategic pipeline. Three publish no market total at all — Indonesia, European Union, United States — and the tracker shows that rather than a substitute.
Review-ready Near-term Strategic pipeline
06 · What it will not tell you
Declared limits, in the same place as the claims.
- Not advice. Commercial intelligence and diligence triage — not medical, legal, regulatory, freedom-to-operate or investment advice.
- Supply is unknown everywhere. The tracker holds no manufacturing data, so the CMC and supply gate is unresolved for all 13 markets.
- Review-ready is not launch-ready. It means ready for a human to review. Gate verdicts need sign-off from regulatory, IP counsel, quality, supply and finance.
- Definitions differ. Market values and obesity thresholds are not defined identically across markets. Every figure shows its basis; read it before comparing.
See every market, every gate, every source.
News and regulatory milestones refresh automatically four times a day. Every figure shows its source — or says plainly that there isn’t one.